Uncertainty isn’t a pause. It’s a workload.
Uncertainty isn't a pause. It's a workload.
The Bank of England is split, energy prices are climbing and much of the market says it is waiting for clarity. For MRICS professionals and the firms that employ them, the next six months are when careers and teams are built, not when they are put on hold.
Every period of uncertainty produces the same reflex: hold off on the move, delay the hire, wait for the next data point. It is rarely the right call, and in real estate advisory it is often the wrong one.
On 17 September the Monetary Policy Committee kept Bank Rate at 3.75%. Six members voted to hold and three voted to raise it to 4%. CPI stood at 3.1% in August, and the Bank now thinks it could go above 4% early next year if energy prices stay where they are. The Q2 RICS Commercial Property Monitor found respondents split almost evenly between those who think the market is still falling, those who think it has bottomed and those who see an upturn starting.
Read the headlines and it looks like a market standing still. Look at what those conditions mean for day-to-day work and it looks very different. When nobody agrees on what an asset is worth, what it will earn or how it should be financed, someone qualified has to give an answer. That is the job our candidates do and the service our clients sell.
Below we set out where the work is building, what it means if you are a surveyor weighing up your next step, and what it means if you are a partner deciding whether to grow your team now or wait.
The market at a glance
Held at 3.75% on a 6–3 vote. Next decision 5 November. The direction of travel is now a live debate.
Watch£33bn of loans mature this year. Lenders are competing hard to refinance good assets.
OpportunityPrime and secondary are moving further apart. London prime offices, data centres and living lead the way.
OpportunityQ2 investment of £10.2bn. Offices, living and hotels are all up year on year on a rolling basis.
SteadySenior advisers who can defend a number with little evidence are the hardest people to find.
OpportunityA hold that doesn't feel like one
At the start of the year, most of the market assumed the next move in rates would be down. After the September meeting that is no longer safe. Brent crude has risen by around a third since July and UK wholesale gas prices have gone up even more. Three MPC members now want a rate rise. The majority held back for now, pointing to spare capacity in the labour market and financial conditions that are already tight. But the Bank said plainly that the risk of wider inflation effects has grown.
For property, the bigger question is how certain anyone can be about rates, not just the rate itself. Two-year fixed mortgage rates are running roughly 95 basis points above where they were before the Middle East conflict escalated. Swap rates and gilt yields move on every data release. Every model, investment committee paper and loan covenant built on last quarter's assumptions now needs checking.
Uncertainty about rates means more revaluations, more sensitivity analysis and more clients asking for advice. Advisory work rarely drops when rates are unpredictable. It usually changes shape and increases.
Follow the refinancing
Research from Bayes Business School, published in May, shows where the activity is going. Lending rose 29% in 2025 to its highest level in ten years, but around 60% of it was refinancing, not new money for new deals. A further £33bn of loans falls due in 2026. The lender mix has changed as well: debt funds' share of the market rose from 12% to 28%, while UK banks fell from 40% to 36%.
Lenders are competing hard for good assets, cutting margins on prime offices and pushing on loan-to-value and fees. Pressure is building at the other end of the market. Only 37% of loans now have interest cover above 2.0x, compared with 73% in 2017, and 13% sit below 1.0x.
Every refinancing needs an independent view of value. Every loan with tight interest cover needs someone to test the rent roll, the lease events and the exit. Newer lenders often lack the in-house benches that the banks built over decades, so they rely heavily on outside advice. This is steady, fee-earning work, and it grows in exactly the conditions that slow down transactions.
Whether there are more or fewer deals, the refinancing cycle keeps qualified advisers busy. Firms with strong lender relationships are in a good position for the next 18 months.
A two-speed market needs judgement
The Q2 RICS Monitor shows the gap between the best stock and everything else getting wider. Across the UK, surveyors expect prime office rents to rise (a net balance of +51%, and +67% in London), while secondary offices (−26%) and secondary retail (−34%) point the other way. Data centres and multifamily residential sit near the top of the table. CBRE's midyear review sees record data centre demand continuing, with occupiers paying a premium for power, location and speed of delivery.
A split market is hard to value. Comparable evidence gets thin, generic yield assumptions stop working, and the gap between two buildings on the same street can decide whether a loan covenant is met or broken. Clients will pay for advisers who understand the specific asset, can explain their reasoning under scrutiny and have credibility with both borrowers and lenders.
Specialist knowledge is worth more when the market is divided. Surveyors with sector depth in the growing parts of the market, and the confidence to stand behind a number, are the ones clients are asking for by name.
“When nobody agrees on what an asset is worth, the person who can defend the number becomes the most valuable person in the room.”
Why Q4 is a good time to move
Many surveyors put off a move until the market settles. Having worked through several cycles, we would argue that the best opportunities often come up when most people are waiting.
- Less competition for the best roles. When most of the market is waiting, the people who do engage get more attention from decision-makers and more room to agree the role, title and structure they want.
- Your experience is worth more now. Experience of refinancing, loan security and valuing with thin evidence is exactly what firms are short of. It will not be valued this highly once conditions settle.
- Bonus timing can work in your favour. Conversations started in autumn can be timed around year-end payments rather than against them. A good adviser will help you plan that from the start.
- Check the firm's income, not just the brand. Ask where its fees come from. A firm with lender panels, a strong refinancing pipeline and advisory work that runs through the cycle is a better long-term bet than one that relies on deal volumes.
You don't have to move now. But knowing what you are worth and which firms are building teams costs nothing, and it puts you in a much stronger position when the right opportunity comes up.
Want a confidential view of where your experience sits in today's market?
Speak to SONDRHiring against the cycle
The firms that come out of an uncertain period in a stronger position are usually the ones that hired during it. The logic is simple. When competitors freeze recruitment, senior people who would never have answered a call a year ago start listening, because they are thinking about how secure their current firm is and where their next promotion will come from.
- Hire for the work that is coming. Refinancing, loan monitoring and valuations in a divided market need senior judgement. Adding it now means you can take on that work when clients need it, instead of turning it away.
- Think in teams, not only individuals. A proven team with shared clients can add a new service line in one step. Periods of disruption are when those moves become possible.
- Move quickly and be clear. The best candidates have options. A slow, uncertain process tells them the firm is hesitant, which is the opposite of the message a growing firm wants to send.
Hiring against the cycle is not reckless. It gets you the people the market will be short of when confidence comes back.
Clarity is what clients pay for. Right now, it's in short supply.
We don't expect the November MPC meeting to settle things, and we don't think anyone should build a plan around it. Energy prices, the lending cycle and the widening gap between prime and secondary stock will shape the next year more than any single rate decision.
What we are seeing in our own conversations supports that. The firms we speak to are busier than the headlines suggest, and the work increasingly calls for senior judgement rather than volume. The surveyors we represent are getting more serious interest, sooner, when they can show experience of work that holds up in difficult conditions.
Our advice to both sides is the same: don't mistake a quiet transaction market for a quiet profession. The work is there. The question is who will be in position to do it.
Considering your next move?
SONDR represents MRICS-qualified professionals on an exclusive basis, with discretion, one adviser and a clear view of the market.
- Confidential market valuation of your experience
- Introductions at partner and business-owner level
- Planning around bonus timing and notice periods
Building your team?
We work on retained instructions only, for partners and business owners who want senior hires and team acquisitions done properly.
- Access to MRICS talent that isn't on the open market
- Team lift-outs and acquisition advisory
- A focused shortlist, not a stack of CVs